The expert prediction info from GoldDerby.com is probably the closest thing we have to tracking”sharp” activity for award shows. While they do not always nail the winner (who does?) , their accuracy was in the 66-92% array as 2011. The key is that the pros have been dead as far as the films for which they don’t vote, allowing us to effectively narrow down every category to only the contenders with true shots of winning.
The percentage of the pro vote a nominee has in a particular category can be treated as its”true” likelihood, which can subsequently be compared to the actual betting odds for that category to find out which bets offer you the most value.
Here is a table comparing a candidate’s real probability of winning based on the exports with the probability implied from the betting odds for various categories, sorted by value.
Make sure you check back regularly up till 8 pm lock, as I will be upgrading if odds new and shift values emerge.
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